Developing Economies in the Asian region would be more resilient to the global downturn than was initially thought, the major ADB report says.
Asian Development Bank on Tuesday has published its report on the Asian Region forecasting the economic growth for year 2009 and 2010 at 3.9% and 6.4% respectively. According to the ADB, despite the worsening economic situation, developing Asia is poised to lead the recovery from the worldwide slowdown. Active response from the government and healthy financial system in the region has fuelled the economic growth and insulated the region from the worst economic crisis to certain extent.
India Economy in particular, ADB has raised the growth forecast from 5 per cent to 6 per cent for the year 2009, and 7 per cent for the year 2010. The key drivers for Indian economy to survive is quicker than expected return on capital, huge capital inflows, increase public spending, Industrial production is improving, however the risk of downside in the economy due to weaker exports, weaker agriculture output expectations has been minimized by the way of announcing stimulus packages and monetary policies which has maintained the financial system in working condition, although the agriculture output is expected to revive by the last quarter. According to the ADB, 2010 would be better for the economy as the industrial economies is supposed to be out of recession, thus the exports will likely to turnaround and it will cut the overall trade deficit.
On the inflation side, as the food prices are soaring due to poor output of crops this year, the report suggest that the government will be able to contain the inflation by importing the appropriate amount of foodgrain, however it would create the chaotic situation for the central bank while coming on to the monetary policy review. Higher CPI would influence the RBI’s monetary decision and hence, the revision in interest rates is expected as the VMW had research earlier. Key valid points which has been outlined by the ADB to broader openness for the economic resilience:
- Reinforce Intra-Regional Trade.
- Effectively manage financial globalization.
- Maximizing the benefits from labor mobilization.
This report is officially published by the ADB and the content used in this post has been taken from the report of Asian Development Bank. VMW is not intended to disseminate this report and has been published on VMW Blog for the information purpose only for the visitors.