RBI Revised Repo Rate And Reverse Repo Rate To Contain Inflation. Inflation Is A Big Disquiet For The Central Bank.

RBI revised policy rates to contain the alarming rate of inflation despite of the shrinking money supply prompted by the recent auction of 3G Spectrum License and Advance Taxes.

On the given condition of the Macro Economic situation of India, RBI, considering the significant risk of inflation, has decided to revise its policy rates to counter the rising risk of inflationary pressure on the economic growth. Now, the fiscal deficit is no longer a cause of concern for the policy makers, as the government is able to cut the deficit by accumulating billions of dollars by selling off their stake in the public sector undertakings (PSU) however the downside risk to the global economy are much greater and the risks have risen sharply by an escalation of financial stress followed by the rising concern over the sovereign risk, which could lead to an increase in cost of capital and tighter lending condition for the corporates.

The RBI becomes Inflation Hawk to combat the alarming rate of inflation. It is for sure, the interest rates is expected to rise in the next few quarters and it would become detrimental to the economic growth.

The recent trend in the money supply shows (refer to below Figure) the decline in stock of money in India, tighten by absorbing the additional liquidity from the system. Recent auction of 3G (Third Generation Telecommunication Technology) Spectrum and advance taxes paid by the Indian companies have further stressed the liquidity in the system as the government’s cash balances gone up. However, the another significant step made by the Indian Government to gradually de-regulate the diesel prices in the country, which will allow the fiscal consolidation and will further help to reduce the country’s fiscal deficit, (which is at 9.81 per cent of the total GDP of India) largely dilated by the heavy subsidy on fuel. It will also further improve the country’s long-term sovereign debt rating.

There have been a significant economic growth in the past three-quarters and the robust growth recorded in the manufacturing sector, aided by the expanding exports, which is showing the strength of the economic growth, however the outlook continues to woe by the economic disturbances in the European economy. Developments on the inflation front has raised several concerns. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation increased to 10.2 per cent in May 2010, up from 9.6 per cent in Apr, 2010. But it is observed that the inflation will settle down to the lower levels on account of good monsoon rains in the several parts of the country. Over the period of time, inflation would ease-off however, the core commodity prices will continue to rise backed by the economic headway, which will deter the inflation to fall below six per cent. Thus, the central bank has announced its policy stance to counter inflation, to make economic progress. In the last policy decision, after the policy rate revision by 25 bps, the Central Bank’s Repo rate stands at 5.50 percent and Reverse Repo rate stands at 4.00 percent. Now on 27th Jul, 2010 in the First quarter monetary policy, RBI has revised the policy rates once again. Repo rate increases by 25 bps to 5.75 percent and Reverse Repo increases by 50 bps to 4.50 percent.

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RBI’s Annual Monetary Policy: RBI Revised Repo Rate And CRR. Policy Expected To Be Aggresive Amid High Inflation.

Grim economic outlook along with poor monsoon was the biggest concern last year, but for this year, inflation is the biggest challenge for the Reserve Bank of India.

  

Click here for the latest VMW Research on India’s Annual Monetary Policy

 

Reserve Bank of India on Apr 20, 2010 has revised its policy rates and CRR by 25 bps. In response to the intimidating supply side factors, India’s inflation dynamic economic growth – as the domestic balance of risk shifts from economic slowdown to inflation, RBI decided to absorb liquidity from the market to control prices. The recovery process in the global economy persists amidst the policy support around the world. In India, RBI has forecasted the GDP growth for 2009-10 at 7.5 per cent while the CSO has forecasted the GDP growth at 7.2 per cent and may settle down in between 7.2 and 7.5 per cent.

Challenges remain in the economy, just perturbing factor has shifted from the economic slowdown to the inflation. Today, inflation is the biggest challenge for the RBI. The headline inflation – measured on WPI on year over year basis, expedited from 0.5 per cent in Sep 2009 to 9.9 per cent in Mar 2010, exceeded the RBI’s baseline projection of 8.5 per cent. Since the economic environment evolving very rapidly, the demand for non-food items also hasten which is propping-up the inflation, thus it is clear WPI is no longer driven by the supply side factors alone.

Raising substantial amount of money for the central government and at the same time, curbing additional liquidity to control prices will be a biggest challenge for the Reserve Bank of India to manage borrowings of the government during 2010-11.

 

 

During 2009-10, the Central government borrowed Rs398,411 Crores ($87.3 Billion approx.) through the market borrowing programme such as Market Stabilization Scheme (MSS) and open Market operations (OMO). This large market borrowing by the government pushing up the yields on government securities during the last financial year, however the lower demand for the credit by the private sectors and better liquidity management by the central bank has cushioned the yields. Moreover, the Union Budget for 2010-11 has begun the process of fiscal consolidation. Government budgeting to pull down the fiscal deficit to 5.5 per cent of the total GDP as compare to 6.7 per cent in 2009-10.

What would be the Possible Causes for Further Elevation in headline Inflation?

  • Rise in Food as well as non-food articles as the prospect of monsoon is not yet clear.
  • Rise in commodity prices poses greater risk to the inflation such as wild volatility in crude oil prices.
  • Strong industrial output according to the IIP data shows the revived confidence in corporates and regaining their pricing power and building up of demand side pressure.

 

Initiating the fiscal consolidation process is a major positive development to enhance the monetary situation in the country as it aimed at reducing the government deficits. This will help avoid the unforeseen demand for private sector credit and would facilitate better monetary management. Nevertheless, the overall size of the government borrowing would exert pressure on the interest rates going forward.

After a series of monetary expansion during the financial crisis, Reserve Bank of India decided to curb liquidity by way of revising policy rates and CRR. In order to achieve the consolidating economic growth, RBI’s policy stance would be a meaningful step towards the resilient economic growth of the country despite the dubiety of rainfall, inflation is now become more generalized and no longer driven by supply side pressure and better liquidity management to make sure that government borrowing programme would not get hampered. In its latest monetary measures, RBI had the following  plan of action for managing liquidity:

Policy Rates as of Jun 2010
       
Repo Rate 5.25% 0.25
Reverse Repo Rate 3.75% 0.25
Bank Rate 6%   0
       
Reserve Ratios      
       
Cash Reserve Ratio 6% 0.25
Statutory Liquidity Ratio 25%   0

 

Please read the latest VMW Research on the RBI’s Monetary Policy at VMW Blog!

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RBI’s Third Quarter Monetary Policy. CRR Raised By 75 Bps.

India’s Central Bank, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced its Monetary Policy on Fri, Jan 29, 2010 and decided to raise CRR by 75 bps to 5.75%.

As expected, Central bank, Reserve Bank of India has raised Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 75 bps to 5.75% and keeps its policy rates unchanged as per the expectations of VMW, however the hike in CRR is well above, what we had anticipated. While the global economy is stabilizing, the growth outlook has been revised. Economies have rebounded steadly after the significant government intervention. Over the past two years, RBI has reduced the policy rates and CRR in response to the economic crisis to infuse the sufficient amount of liquidity into the market to emerge from the dried liquidity situation and to provide the ample credit facility to the economy to impede the greater risk of economic trouble for the second fastest growing economy in the world. The general trend of CRR (shown below), shows, how the central bank has responded to the economic trouble. During the reign of YV Reddy, CRR jumped to 9 per cent in Aug 2008 just before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers to absorb the additional liquidity in order to prevent the Indian companies (banks & companies) to invest outside into the risky assets.

 

After few days, Duvvuri Subbarao has taken over the charge of RBI and he decided to reduce interest rates by more than 400 bps, when the financial crisis was at peak. Overall, the RBI has predominantly managed the situation mightily and helped the Indian companies to grow even in a gloomy economic period to a certain extent. Now this time, RBI raised the CRR as the Inflation rate is again at the alarming levels. India’s spiralling money supply over the past few months has grew by more than 22 per cent which is again the another matter of concern, which the RBI is taking it seriously to contain the the rise in prices. Rise in CRR would not likely affect the cost of borrowing as the banks are sitting on ample liquidity and shifting to the demand deposits to reduce their cost. Bank’s CASA , Time Deposit ratio has been shifted very aggresively post economic recession to reduce their cost. However, over the next few quarters, RBI may hike the Repo rate and Reverse Repo rate if the inflationary pressure continues.

Indian Economy 2010 Overview: Development in the Global Economy Post Recession.

Global Economic recession is fading and the recovery process from the damages is entering another year. Year 2009 gone well thru our expectations and year 2010 is knocking for the faster and stable recovery. 

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Introduction to Study –

It’s almost a decade since we entered into the 2000s. Economic growth in these years wasn’t so impressive for the western economies. It proves to be one of the worst economic period for those economies. Indeed, the so-called fastest growing economies (such as India, Brazil, China, Mexico, Russia, and Indonesia) have seen an unprecedented economic expansion because, the eastern economies were the producers and the western economies were the consumer and the same trend would likely to continue as the companies, nowadays, are more conscious about the cost. Rising input cost (or raw material) are forcing the corporations in the industrialized economies to shift their focus on the cost-effective region to keep up the pricing competitiveness in the specific industry, they are in. Change in consumer trend is also major concern for the companies to invest more in the process of  innovation, research and development (R&D).

As the economic pace is picking up, global commodity prices have staged a comeback from lows and global trade has also seen a decent growth over the last two years. Unprecedented Government intervention and exceptionally large interest rate cuts by the central bank in advanced and emerging economies have contributed a lot to pull the global economy up from the deepest recession since the World War II. Several Governments around the world launched the stimulus packages to prop up the economic growth, generate employment opportunities and the overall economic growth with the aim to reduce uncertainty in the economy and increased confidence. In this VMW research, we’ll discuss about the overall economic prospect for the year 2010 and the how the Indian Economy emerge from the ongoing economic repairment.

 

Economic Prospect For Year 2010 –

Global economy is seems to be expanding after a recent shock. Indian Economy, however just felt the blow of the global economic recession and the real economic growth have seen a sharp fall followed by the lower exports, capital outflow and corporate restructuring. It is expected that the global economies continue to stay strong in the short-term as the effect of stimulus is still strong and the tax cuts are working. Due to strong position of liquidity in the market, large corporations now have access to capital in corporate credit markets. 

  India’s Economic Outlook Projection
           
    2007 2008 2009 2010
           
GDP Growth    9.40% 7.30% 7.60% 8.30%
CPI   6.40% 9.30% 5.50% 4.90%

Year 2009 has started on the gloomy note, however the trend reversed from the first quarter of the year, financial markets posted strong gains fueled by huge amount of capital inflows which was set-aside during the economic downturn in search of a higher yield. Number of companies jumped into the equity markets to raise funds to de-leverage themselves, corporate risk have declined. Before the beginning of the economic recession, several companies betted on the better economic future and blindly raised funds thru various options (largely in a way of debt). Real Estate was the hardest hit industry during the recession. Many companies even offloaded their huge amount of stake, in order to meet the deadline to pay-off the short-term debt. Not only the realty companies which has faced that situation, actually many Small & Medium Enterprises (SMEs) have opted that option to expand themselves aggressively and routed out of the business. As the new year begins, the new wave of optimism has surrounded the economies to expand further from the recent shock, with the expectations of fresh stimulus package, shrink in unemployment rate, expectations of the high inflation, higher interest rates in the emerging economies. Over the next few months, inflation would be a worrisome for the economies. According to the estimates, inflation would likely to reach up to 10%, resulted, the expectations of the monetary policy tightening from the Reserve Bank of India in the second quarter review of monetary policy. Asian economies – Chinese economy in particular, along with India  are in the strongest place for a sustained recovery. There are increasing signs of a recovery in a private domestic demand.

 

Inflation Direction –

Since the global economies are emerging from the lows, in a short run, inflation is expected to rise due to bounce back in demand for commodities. Although, the underlying inflation are still on the downside. Higher unemployment rate in the west will lead to low wage growth and pricing power would be limited for a long time as demand will be very vulnerable to price rises. But, India would buck the trend in inflation due to ample amount of liquidity in the system and rising demand.

India Economy 2010 Overview –

In order to keep the economic growth during the time of worst recession, Federal authorities in India has announced the stimulus packages to prop-up the economic growth. To finance the stimulus packages, Indian Government has raised over $100 billion over the last four quarters in a way to finance the stimulus package. Country’s Public debt, according to the latest data has zoomed to over 50% of the total GDP and India’s Central bank, Reserve Bank of India has started printing new currency notes.

Central Government Debt
 
in Rs. Crores (10 Million) Q3 2008 Q3 2009 % of GDP
 
Public Debt (Sum of 1 and 2) 2,099,286.23 2,505,450.74 50.71%
1. External Debt 237,351.77 294,941.67  
2. Internal Debt 1,861,934.46 2,210,509.07  

Source: VMW Analytic Services

Going forward, India will see sharp rise in supply side inflation, after the effect of large government borrowings, printing of new currency notes, rise in food prices due to huge gap in demand-supply. Interest rates will also expected to rise awkward, as the central bank will take precautionary measure to contain inflation rate and expanding money supply.

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For the equity markets, investors are still  in a quest for a higher return and turned down their investments in Government Bonds/Securities. There are a lot of money which are still available to readily invest into the equity markets. Indian financial markets expected to be range-bound as the fear of higher valuation would be the concern for a short while. Moreover, volatility is expected to come down as the market timings have been extended by an hour in parallel to the other Asian equity markets. This will help the Indian markets to hit newer highs which, we have waited for more than two years. There is no extra concern on the front of equity markets, as the Equity, nowadays, considered as the best asset class to invest in, the main reason would be the overstated potential of precious metals like Gold and Silver, which has seen a sharp rally last year, in a time of gloomy economic picture.

 

Stability in the Global Economy Means Expansion of the Indian Economy –

All of us have seen an unprecedented government intervention during the economic recession by way of announcing huge amount of stimulus package for the economy to prop-up domestic demand. With many recovery tools were used during the crisis, government deficits are in deep red and central bank rates are almost zero in certain countries and the prospect of zero rates over a longer period and deflationary concerns will probably gain the upper hand and send bond yields lower. Hence, there is a low scope of further announcement.

As far as the Indian economy is concerned, is suffering from huge debt to GDP ratio, moreover India is the largest net importer of commodities like Oil, Food, metal in relation to the GDP. Sharp decline in oil prices, could cut the subsidy burden and those savings would be use for the fiscal stimulus. Increased and better expenditure with greater focus on improved outcomes in social and physical infrastructure, and safety nets will speed up the recovery consistent with the long-term growth.

 

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RBI Monetary Policy Review: Policy Rates Unchanged, SLR Revised By 1%.

Reserve Bank of India’s latest monetary policy review has left the policy rates unchanged and the Statutory Liquidity Ratio has been revised by 1% to 25%.

Monetary Policy Action For A Sustainable Fragile Recovery

Reserve Bank India Headquarters in Mumbai.Over the past few months, the health of the global economies have been improved significantly however, the recent RBI’s monetary policy shows that the central bank is taking no chance for the sake of the economic growth as the RBI understands that the current economic recovery is fragile. Perhaps, the companies around the world are announcing better than expected quarterly results, but its not showing the real growth in revenue or on the bottom-line side, but actually it shows the positive response of cost cutting measures, which had been taken when the recession was at peak in Sep, 2008. Moreover, since the Indian economy decelerated in the last few quarters, Reserve Bank is taking permissive measures regardless the inflation problem which is persisting and would force the RBI in near future to take hawkish policy actions for a sustainable growth and to prevent the possible asset bubble, the same which was done by the former RBI Governor – Yaga Venugopal Reddy, who raised the interest rates even in difficult times to avert the Indian Banks from huge losses. To safeguard the economy from the rising public debt, the fiscal stimulus needs to be sustained until the recovery is on. Whether the economy is collapsing or recovering from the gorge, it is the crucial economic cycle and the sustainable recovery would be taken care of by way of stimulating the demand in a bleak times. In the recent economic research done by the VMW on the Indian Economy, in which we have mentioned about the disparity between the WPI and CPI inflation. The same is now concerning the central bank to decide over the interest rates which has been mentioned in the Minutes of Meeting (MoM) of the Board of Governors of RBI.

On Tue, 27th Oct 2009, RBI has left its key policy rates (Repo and Reverse Repo) unchanged for a while and hinted upon a high degree of probability of higher inflation in the near future which would be a turnaround for the interest rates. Moreover, the central bank emphasis on credit flows to the Agriculture and SME sector for a growth revival has disappointed the Real Estate industry. RBI has not even touched the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) as the liquidity in the market is still at a comfortable level. Upto first week of Oct 2009, M3 Money Supply was at 18.9 per cent above the RBI estimate as the large Government Borrowings reflecting the expansion of M3 Stock of Money.

Over the past few years, RBI’s monetary actions are always growth specific. India is a supply constrained economy as compare to developed economies which are lagging by lament demand. To supply the ample social infrastructure, RBI is now focussing on the Real Estate and Infrastructure sector. The stance of the Monetary Policy for the rest of the year 2009  under different monetary measures in which the Repo Rate and Reverse Repo rate has been leave unchange at 4.75%, and 3.25% respectively. CRR has also been retained unchanged at 5% while the SLR has been revised by 1 percentage point to 25%.

Developing Asia To Be Buoyant To The Global Downturn, Says Asian Development Bank.

Developing Economies in the Asian region would be more resilient to the global downturn than was initially thought, the major ADB report says.

A man talks on his cell phone past the electronic stock board of a securities firm in Tokyo, Japan, Friday, Aug. 14, 2009. Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average rose 80.14 points, or 0.8 percent, at 10,597.33, the highest close since Oct. 3. (AP Photo/Itsuo Inouye)Asian Development Bank on Tuesday has published its report on the Asian Region forecasting the economic growth for year 2009 and 2010 at 3.9% and 6.4% respectively. According to the ADB, despite the worsening economic situation, developing Asia is poised to lead the recovery from the worldwide slowdown. Active response from the government and healthy financial system in the region has fuelled the economic growth and insulated the region from the worst economic crisis to certain extent.

India Economy in particular, ADB has raised the growth forecast from 5 per cent to 6 per cent for the year 2009, and 7 per cent for the year 2010. The key drivers for Indian economy to survive is quicker than expected return on capital, huge capital inflows, increase public spending, Industrial production is improving, however the risk of downside in the economy due to weaker exports, weaker agriculture output expectations has been minimized by the way of announcing stimulus packages and monetary policies which has maintained the financial system in working condition, although the agriculture output is expected to revive by the last quarter. According to the ADB, 2010 would be better for the economy as the industrial economies is supposed to be out of recession, thus the exports will likely to turnaround and it will cut the overall trade deficit.

On the inflation side, as the food prices are soaring due to poor output of crops this year, the report suggest that the government will be able to contain the inflation by importing the appropriate amount of foodgrain, however it would create the chaotic situation for the central bank while coming on to the monetary policy review. Higher CPI would influence the RBI’s monetary decision and hence, the revision in interest rates is expected as the VMW had research earlier. Key valid points which has been outlined by the ADB to broader openness for the economic resilience:

  1. Reinforce Intra-Regional Trade.
  2. Effectively manage financial globalization.
  3. Maximizing the benefits from labor mobilization.

 

 

This report is officially published by the ADB and the content used in this post has been taken from the report of Asian Development Bank. VMW is not intended to disseminate this report and has been published on VMW Blog for the information purpose only for the visitors.

(SA) Indian Economy 2009-10 Overview. Development in Economy Subsequent To The Recent Crisis.

High interest rates, inflation rate, trade deficit, fiscal deficit and depreciation of Rupee is expected in the next few months.

 

Recovery in Economy.VMW have researched on the global economy with the projection of contraction in the economy is expected in the first half of the year and will likely to see expansion in some of the economies. Germany and France, the largest and second largest economies of the European Union respectively and Japan, the largest economy of Asia has emerged from the recession after 5 quarters, and the United States is somewhat shy to come out of the recession and is expected to expand by the end of this year. The main drivers which might helped the economy, is the active response by the Government Authorities, in a way of announcing trillions of dollars in stimulus packages. Central banks around the world have poured in billions of dollars into the system to make credit market works and slashed interest rates to almost nil to impede the economy to go into deeper recession. With most of the indicators are now offering the sign of strength, however the wobbling unemployment and unsustainable government support to the economy would hamper the growth process. Amid the bleak environment in the global economy, GDP growth in developing economies are shrugging the outlook of their economic growth. With most of the economies were in melancholy, economies like India and China registered a growth rate of 6.7% and 9% respectively.

The immediate effect of the rebound in the global economy could be seen in the financial markets which have posted the spectacular gains in a short time. Since 2008 fallout, markets in India have been stabilized followed by the unprecedented victory in the recent elections, announcement of stimulus packages, and active response to the crisis by the central bank (RBI) which boosted market sentiment and anticipating greater reforms in the economy. In fact situation at the world level are also improving significantly. US economy in particular has offered strong signs of improvement in its economy and expunging the recession which begun in the last quarter of the year 2007.

India Economy Overview

In the above Chart, which is showing the India’s IIP, Inflation, Exports and Imports from Apr 2008 to Jun 2009. All trend lines are showing the sign of stability from falling which was started in 2008. Over the last six years, Indian Economy grew at an average rate of 8%, becomes one of the world’s largest economy. In 2007-08, Indian Economy posted a growth rate of 9%, though the economic growth has slumped due to recession in the west for the year 2008-09. Service sector will continue to outnumber the manufacturing sector and account for more than 53% of the total GDP, but still less than the advanced economies. According to the GDP data, IT export is on the rise and outpacing the overall growth of the sector.

Nasty Monsoon: This year’s deficient monsoon probably downgrade the overall economic growth as the Agriculture sector accounts for more than 18% of the total GDP. Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Punjab, and Haryana are the key farming locations of India. Almost scanty monsoon in Uttar Pradesh in particular will make a larger impact on India’s farm sector as the poor harvesting of Rice and Cane hit hard due to poor monsoon. Monsoon below average will make several kind of impact on India and other parts of the world. As India is the second largest producer of Rice and Sugarcane followed by the US and Brazil respectively, the commodity prices will go up, and according to the NYMEX data, the sugar prices soared by 62% since last year due to bad weather in India and the world had been affected by the food price crisis last year due to several reasons including poor harvesting due to drought situation and various other non-farm reasons.

Primarily, capital inflows into India has supported the sharp “V” shape recovery in the BSE’s benchmark index, Sensex. Indian equity markets perked up by more than 90% from its March 2009 lows (See given below figure). Foreign investments, positive growth outlook, consumer confidence, good corporate earnings, better reforms prospect might be a specific reason of overall growth in the financial markets. But, will the rally be sustainable over the next few months as the economy would not be grown as fast as we had expected earlier?

The global financial markets are trading at a reasonable value after sharp fall from the 2007 highs. From the beginning of this year, lot of money has poured into the markets around the world as the investors are optimistic about the economy. Developed economies would take more than two years to recover however the Asian economies will lead the overall economic recovery. Companies around the world has posted better than expected earnings in the last couple of quarters and showing the signs of recovery in their operations, nevertheless the growth in their earnings was ushered by cost cutting measures such as layoff and restructuring of their businesses. In general, their growth would be sustainable once the consumer confidence revives in the developed economies.

BSE Sensex

Unruly Supply-Side: Over the next few months, we will see the higher inflation due to supply side exertion. Supply side concern may include shortage of food grains, higher stock of money in the system due to spiralling government borrowings will doubtlessly push inflation on the higher side. We will expect the monetary action from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in response to the microeconomic developments. Over the next few months, perhaps the Interest rates would go up in response to inoculate the economy from the risk of higher inflation and currency depreciation.

Economy in 2009-10: It would be bewilder that when we should expect the veritable recovery in the Indian Economy? Of course the Indian economy is not an exception and will go inline with the global economies. It will take a lot of time to recover however the situation has improved significantly and so far we have seen an extremely rapid movement in the economy. Moreover, the G-20 Summit, Pittsburgh in Sep 2009 will play a crucial role in the overall economic recovery as the global leaders were committed to monitor the situation and decision which were taken in G-20 Summit, London. However, we cannot expect the fresh stimulus packages from the Government Authorities to revive the economy.

Important Notice: VMW Research Team has marked this research as “Superannuated” and the content of this research is no longer in use in today’s economic context. However, certain references and inferences in this research can be use.  Continue reading