India Budget 2009 Review. Market Expectations Despaired.

 

 

GDP Growth

IIP Data

Budget for an Inclusive Growth

Much awaited Budget mainly for reforms, hike in FDI limit financial industry, deliverance of an inclusive growth in the ecocomy were finally delivered by the Finance Minister of India, Pranab Mukherjee. Some of us were very happy with the proposals made in the House while other got disappointment on various front. For sure, India’s economic growth has been impacted by the global economic problems and the recovery in the western economy specially in the US would play a critical role in a growth of the Indian economy. The rising fiscal deficit, expenditures are not only a single major concern for the economy but the significant rise in government borrowings also does matter for the future growth, which would affect the borrowing cost (refer to the given below figure).

India's Fiscal Deficit for FY 2008-09 of Annual GDP at Current Market Price.

India's Fiscal Deficit for FY 2008-09 of Annual GDP at Current Market Price.

 

There is no doubt that the debt level of the Indian Government likely to puff up due to higher spending. First look at the brief synopsis of Budget 2009.

  • Mr Finance Minister has agreed upon the real challenges to get back to sustainable 9% GDP growth.
  • Finance Minister stressed upon infrastructure development by providing long term financial assitance to infrastruture projects via India Infrastruture Finance Company Ltd (IIFCL).
  • Increases allocations for National Highway and Railways projects.
  • Extension of repayment period from Jun 2009 to Dec 2009 under the Debt relief Program 2008 to the farmers having acquired land more than two hectares.
  • Gov’t of India commitment on restoring growth in export sector.
  • To Initiate Institutional Reform measures from this year to fix the rising Fiscal Deficit.
  • To allocate Rs 39,400 crores ($8.16 Billion) to National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS).
  • Total expenditure of Rs. 1,020,838 Crores ($209.62 Billion) according to the Budget Estimates 2009-10.
  • Abolishment of Fringe Benefit Tax (FBT) and removal of Surcharge on Income Tax.
  • Changes in Direct Tax Code.
  • Implementation of Goods and Service Tax (GST) from 1st Apr 2010.
  • Revision in Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) from 10% to 15%.

Since the inflation is no longer a concern for the economic growth, India needs to opt for a better policies and reforms to achieve the macroeconomic stability. Interest rates become more stable backed by the comfortable liquidity situation in the system which would be prudent for the constant growth of the economy and to be self reliant driven by the domestic demand. Forasmuch, India seeing the higher non plan spendings due to Subsidy burden, Sixth Central Pay Commission, and food subsidy which would be a troublesome for the government to restructure its finances. Savings rate at 59% of the anual GDP and massive foreign reserves assets will put the Indian ecconomy on reposeful position in the global arena (helps the Indian economy to abstain from the risk of revision in credit rating).

Finance Minister Mukherjee has commended the budget without giving further stress on the spending and even didn’t touch the revenue side largely in the wake of the macroeconomic health. Foreign Inflows will continue to drive the Indian economy higher in future but the lower exports will make the Balance of Payments (BOP) uneasy for the economy. The vast current account deficit will make the Indian currency more vulnerable in the near term against the US Dollar however it would be a short term pain and not a major concern to think upon. We’re expecting some bit of reduction in fiscal deficit in FY2009-10 due to diminution in subsidy burden including Oil bonds, food subsidy and we could see the beginning of economic reforms in the fiscal year 2009-10 Budget.

We would discuss more in our next report “Indian Economy in 2009-10 Overview”

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5 thoughts on “India Budget 2009 Review. Market Expectations Despaired.

  1. According to me Fringe Benefit Tax has been abolished so it will help all companies and the luxury bus operators who transported passengers either interstate or intra state will now be tax free.

  2. Honestly, after looking to the budget, i felt that FM declared the budget without any preparation. So, he just picked one or two thing which were very important to show to the public (their vote bank especially) that they are doing what they promised. I would like to stress on two important points here. One is the accountability on rural spending and the second long term vision (atleast 5 years for a democratically elected government.

    I am not against spending the tax payers money to improve the rural sector. However, my question is “Is this 40,000 crores of spending on NREGA going to improve the productivity of Nation ? or is it just feeding the voters from the tax payers money ? Probably FM does not know that India’s population is going to touch 1.5 billion mark by 2030. Does this NREGA will increase the agriculture production by 50% ?

    After NREGA, the FM was speaking about tax reduction on jwellery and some speding of 25 crores (0.0025% of the budget spending). Were these things important to the Nation ? However, he did not touch about the revenue generation part of the budget. Neither he spoke about disinvestment in non strategic PSUs. No one expected to do every thing in one shot. Rather, public was waiting for a road map for next few years. It seems that, FM is looking to the industry to grow the GDP, which generate more tax revenues for his vote bank spending machine.

    I do not favour any political party. However, I think FM is a left minded and cannot reform the economy. To me, his budget 25 years ago and today has no difference except that the recent one is X multiple of the previous.

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